×

Japan core inflation exceeds BOJ target, cements near-term rate hike chance

By Thomson Reuters Oct 22, 2026 | 6:48 PM

By Leika Kihara and Takahiko Wada

TOKYO, Oct 23 (Reuters) – Japan’s annual core consumer inflation exceeded the central bank’s 2% target in September for the first time ​in nine months, data showed on Friday, a ‌sign of broadening price pressure that cements the case for a near-term interest rate hike.

The figures underscored how higher fuel costs from the prolonged Middle East conflict, elevated import prices driven by the weak ‌yen ​and price pressures from robust AI demand ⁠were blunting the impact ⁠of government fuel subsidies.

Having just raised interest rates last month, the Bank of Japan is set to stand pat on policy next week but may revise up its ​inflation forecast and signal its readiness to keep pushing up still-low borrowing costs, sources have told Reuters.

The core ⁠consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile ⁠fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 2.1% ​in September from a year earlier, data showed, matching a ​median market forecast. It followed a 1.7% rise in ‌August.

An index that strips away the effects of both volatile fresh food and fuel, which is closely watched by the BOJ as a better gauge of demand-driven price pressures, ⁠rose 2.4% in September from a year earlier after increasing 1.9% in August.

The BOJ raised its key rate to a 31-year high ⁠of 1.25% last ‌month, signalling a shift to guarding against ⁠underlying inflation overshooting its target and raising ​the ‌prospect of additional rate hikes.

BOJ Governor Kazuo ​Ueda has warned ⁠that underlying inflation, or the broad price trend stripping away temporary, one-off factors, may overshoot its 2% target on price pressures from the Middle East conflict, a weak yen and brisk AI demand.

(Reporting by Leika Kihara and Takahiko Wada; Editing ​by Jacqueline Wong)