Sept 7 (Reuters) – UBS expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points each in September and December, after a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report reinforced views of a resilient labor market.
The brokerage had previously expected no policy change this year.
“However, hawkish communication, particularly (Fed Chair Kevin) Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, rising inflation risks from supply bottlenecks, and August labor data have come in strong enough to change that call,” UBS Global Wealth Management said in a note on Friday.
U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August, comfortably ahead of expectations, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, data showed on Friday.
Citigroup and Macquarie also revised their interest rate forecasts following the employment data.
The jobs report followed hawkish remarks from Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium in August. Separately, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support holding rates steady if upcoming data showed inflation pressures continued to ease.
Financial markets are pricing in a roughly 58% chance of a quarter-percentage-point rate hike at the Fed’s September 15-16 meeting, up from 52% on Thursday, CME’s FedWatch tool showed.
(Reporting by Kanchana Chakravarty and Joel Jose in Bengaluru; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala)
