BEIJING, Sept 7 (Reuters) – China’s exports likely grew at a faster pace in August, a Reuters poll showed, indicating that the world’s second-largest economy will continue to rely on external demand to shore up growth as domestic weaknesses persisted.
Exports are expected to have risen 25% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms in August, accelerating from 23.9% the previous month, according to a Reuters poll of 35 economists. Trade data will be released by Customs on Tuesday.
Exports have become a pillar for China’s economy in sustaining growth amid tepid domestic consumption and slumping investment, but the strength in exports also delays the urgency for the government to prop up the weaker side of the economy, such as the property market.
Policymakers set a target range of 4.5-5% for China’s gross domestic product growth in 2026, but momentum sputtered after a solid start of the year, with growth slowing to 4.3% in the second quarter.
Economic data released last month showed that domestic demand and investment remained weak in July, while the official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for August pointed to improved but still subdued manufacturing activity.
China’s exports, on the other hand, remained resilient last year despite Beijing’s trade war with Washington and were buoyed this year by a global AI infrastructure build-out that lifted prices for high-tech goods including chips.
Meanwhile, the export boom is a source of risk as western trading partners demand Beijing to balance its trade with them and seek to lower China’s surplus with trade barriers.
China says it never deliberately pursues a trade surplus and that the export growth originates from its own innovation and other countries’ demand for Chinese goods for green transformation and industrialisation. Chinese leaders also repeatedly pledged to import more.
Imports are forecast to grow 30% year-on-year in August in dollar terms, accelerating from 27.5% in July, while China’s trade surplus is expected to rise to $119.05 billion from $112.5 billion in July.
(Reporting by Yukun Zhang and Ryan Woo; Polling by Susobhan Sarkar in Bengaluru and Jing Wang in Shanghai; editing by Lincoln Feast)
