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Lula retains lead over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election, Datafolha shows

By Thomson Reuters Aug 21, 2026 | 5:54 PM

SAO PAULO, Aug 21 (Reuters) – Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva continues to lead Senator Flavio ​Bolsonaro ahead of the October ‌election, although the right-wing challenger has narrowed the gap by one percentage point, within the error margin, a Datafolha poll showed ‌on ​Friday.

In a simulated ⁠second-round runoff, Lula would ⁠receive 47% of the vote against Bolsonaro’s 43%, according to Datafolha, which has an error margin of ​two percentage points. In July, Lula led Senator Bolsonaro, son of ⁠ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, by ⁠48% to 43%.

• This is ​the first Datafolha poll released since ​the start of the official campaign, when ‌candidates are legally allowed to actively seek votes.

• In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 39% of ⁠the votes, followed by Bolsonaro (33%), Ronaldo Caiado (5%), Renan Santos (4%), and Romeu Zema (3%).

• If no candidate ⁠wins ‌more than 50% of valid ⁠votes in the first round, ​the ‌two frontrunners advance to ​a runoff, ⁠which has happened in every presidential election since 2002.

• Datafolha surveyed 2,058 people starting on August 18.

(Reporting by Andre Romani; Editing by Chris Reese and ​Natalia Siniawski)