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Lula leads Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil election poll

By Thomson Reuters Jul 24, 2026 | 5:18 PM

SAO PAULO, July 24 (Reuters) – Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva maintained his lead over opposition senator Flavio ​Bolsonaro in a new Datafolha poll ‌released on Friday ahead of Brazil’s October presidential election.

Lula would defeat the senator, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, in a potential runoff by 48% ‌to ​43%, the poll showed. ⁠A June survey showed ⁠Lula ahead by 47% to 43%.

• In a first-round scenario Lula would lead with 40% of the votes, followed by ​Bolsonaro at 32%, Ronaldo Caiado at 4%, and Romeu Zema and Renan Santos each ⁠at 3%.

• In Brazil, ⁠if no candidate gets more ​than 50% of valid votes, the two frontrunners ​go to a second-round vote.

• The poll ‌follows a rift between Senator Bolsonaro and his stepmother, former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro.

• She accused him in June of “disrespecting” her ⁠by criticizing her role in party affairs; he publicly apologized to her this week.

• The poll ⁠was also ‌conducted after the United States announced ⁠a 25% tariff on Brazilian ​goods ‌last week, citing unfair trade practices, ​a ⁠charge Lula’s administration rejects.

• Datafolha surveyed 2,004 people between July 22-23. The poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points in either direction.

(Reporting by Andre Romani; Editing by ​Chris Reese)