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Lula leads Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil election poll after Banco Master scandal

By Thomson Reuters May 22, 2026 | 1:52 PM

SAO PAULO, May 22 (Reuters) – Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads opposition Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the race for this year’s presidential election, gaining ground ​after reports linking the right-wing challenger to a ‌disgraced banker, a poll released by pollster Datafolha showed on Friday.

Leftist Lula would win a potential second-round runoff against Flavio by 47% to 43%, the poll showed. A May 16 survey had them tied.

• Lula ‌led ​a first-round scenario with 40% of ⁠the intended vote, followed ⁠by Flavio at 31%, Ronaldo Caiado at 4%, and both Romeu Zema and Renan Santos at 3%.

• The poll was conducted after Intercept Brasil published a story alleging ​Flavio negotiated a $24 million investment from former Banco Master owner Daniel Vorcaro to finance a film inspired on the life ⁠of his father, former President Jair ⁠Bolsonaro.

• Flavio has denied any wrongdoing. Lawyers for ​Vorcaro, who has been in custody since March following a ​sweeping probe into Banco Master’s collapse, declined to comment.

• ‌Earlier this week, an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed Lula beating Flavio in a potential run-off by 48.9% to 41.8%.

• The Datafolha poll also included a potential second-round scenario in which ⁠former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro would face Lula in Flavio’s place, were he to step down from the race over the ⁠Banco Master scandal.

• ‌Against Michelle, Lula would win re-election by ⁠48% to 43%, Datafolha showed.

• In a ​first-round scenario ‌without Flavio on the ballot, Lula led ​with 41%, ⁠followed by Michelle at 22%, Zema at 6%, Caiado at 5% and Santos at 3%.

• Datafolha surveyed 2,004 people between May 20-21, the poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points in either direction.

(Reporting by Isabel Teles, Editing ​by Iñigo Alexander)