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Brazil’s Lula tied with Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in second-round in Datafolha poll

By Thomson Reuters May 16, 2026 | 12:10 PM

SAO PAULO, May 16 (Reuters) – A second-round runoff in October between Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator ​Flavio Bolsonaro would result in a draw, ‌the latest Datafolha poll released on Saturday indicated.

• According to the poll, a second-round runoff between Lula and Flavio, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, ‌would ​see both men draw 45% ⁠of the vote.

• In ⁠April, the poll showed Lula attracting 45% and Flavio 46% in the runoff, a statistical tie due to the poll’s margin ​of error of approximately two percentage points.

• According to the poll of 2,004 voters, Lula ⁠would get 38% in ⁠the first round, while Flavio would ​secure second place with 35%.

• The majority of ​the interviews for the latest poll took ‌place before Intercept Brasil published a story about Flavio’s relationship with former banker Daniel Vorcaro.

• According to the story, Flavio allegedly negotiated the ⁠receipt of 134 million reais ($26.5 million) with Vorcaro, the former owner of Banco Master, to finance a ⁠film about ‌the life of his father.

• Vorcaro ⁠is currently imprisoned amid an investigation into ​a ‌scandal over Banco Master’s collapse.

• ​Flavio has ⁠denied any wrongdoing in his relationship with Vorcaro. Vorcaro’s defense team previously declined to comment on the Intercept Brasil report.

($1 = 5.06 Brazilian reais)

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(Reporting by Bernardo Caram; Writing by Oliver Griffin; Editing by ​Will Dunham)