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AEB lobby group forecasts modest 2.5% growth for Russia’s car market

By Thomson Reuters Jan 13, 2026 | 5:53 AM

MOSCOW, Jan 13 (Reuters) – Sales of new cars in Russia are expected ‍to rise by 2.5% to 1.4 million units in 2026, the Association of European Businesses (AEB) said on Tuesday.

The ‌weak growth forecast ‌reflects increased valued-add tax (VAT) rates and scrappage fees, and the high level of interest rates, the ​lobby group said.

Sales of new passenger and ‍light commercial vehicles ​dropped 17% last ​year, AEB said. Russian analytical ‍agency Autostat, which covers only passenger car sales, said the market fell 15.6% in 2025.

“The significant decline ‍in the market reflects the difficult situation in the industry, which ‍is ‍experiencing both external ​pressure in the ​form ⁠of sanctions restrictions and ‌changes in internal regulation,” said Alexey Kalitsev, chairman of AEB’s Automobile Manufacturers Committee.

(Reporting by Gleb Stolyarov; Editing by ⁠Mark Trevelyan)