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Brazil mid-month inflation undershoots forecasts ahead of presidential runoff

By Thomson Reuters Oct 23, 2026 | 7:08 AM

SAO PAULO, Oct 23 (Reuters) – Brazil’s IPCA-15 consumer price index rose 0.32% in the month to mid-October, government statistics agency ​IBGE said on Friday, down from ‌0.70% in the previous month and below the 0.43% increase expected by economists in a Reuters poll.

Prices in Latin America’s largest economy rose 4.62% in the ‌12 ​months through mid-October, IBGE ⁠added, up from 4.47% ⁠in the previous month but also below economists’ forecast of a 4.73% increase.

• Monthly rise driven by a 0.88% increase in ​food and beverage prices; personal expenses climbed 0.55%, while housing costs eased 0.1%

• Data ⁠published ahead of a ⁠tight presidential runoff between right-wing Senator ​Flavio Bolsonaro, who led the first round, and ​leftist incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva

• ‌Brazil’s central bank targets inflation at 3%, plus or minus 1.5 percentage points

• Policymakers will meet again on November 3-4 after delivering ⁠a fifth consecutive 25-basis-point interest rate cut last month to 13.75%

• The bank has kept its options ⁠open ahead ‌of the November meeting while ⁠pointing to firmer signs of an ​economic ‌slowdown

• Easing core inflation strengthens ​the case ⁠for further rate cuts, but the runoff is an important risk as fiscal credibility remains a concern, said Pantheon Macroeconomics chief Latin America economist Andres Abadia

(Reporting by Gabriel Araujo; Editing by ​Isabel Teles)