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IBM falls as analysts question staying power of software rebound

By Thomson Reuters Oct 22, 2026 | 8:16 AM

Oct 22 (Reuters) – IBM shares fell 6.5% in premarket trading on Thursday, as analysts said part of the company’s third-quarter software rebound was driven by ​deals delayed from the previous quarter, raising questions about ‌how sustainable the boost would be.

Here are more details:

• About $250 million of IBM’s software growth in the quarter came from deals pushed out of the second quarter, and the improvement was more modest ‌without ​them, BofA Global Research analysts said

• ⁠IBM now expects annual ⁠software revenue growth of about 7% to 8%, up from 6% to 8%, but kept its overall revenue growth forecast unchanged

• Third-quarter revenue in IBM’s transaction processing unit, ​which sells software tied to its mainframe computers, grew 9%, though CEO Arvind Krishna said he doesn’t expect ⁠that pace to continue and sees ⁠a more “normalized performance, especially going into next ​year”

• The rebound follows a decline in the unit in ​the second quarter, when weakness in IBM’s mainframe hardware ‌and transaction processing software cut more than five points from its growth, finance chief James Kavanaugh said at the time

• Bernstein said IBM’s forecast suggests sales in the unit ⁠will dip slightly in the fourth quarter as the lift from the delayed deals wears off

• The stock had fallen about ⁠15% this year ‌through Wednesday’s close, including its steepest one-day ⁠drop in over a century in July ​after ‌CEO Arvind Krishna said IBM had “faltered” in ​adapting to ⁠a shift in customer spending

• If current losses hold, IBM is set to lose more than $15 billion in market value

• At least 8 brokerages have raised their price targets on the stock, according to data compiled by LSEG.

(Reporting by Anzar ​Mehraj in Bengaluru)