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Bolsonaro’s lead over Lula narrows ahead of Brazil runoff, polls show

By Thomson Reuters Oct 19, 2026 | 5:31 AM

SAO PAULO, Oct 19 (Reuters) – Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro’s lead over President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has ​narrowed ahead of an October 25 ‌runoff, two polls showed on Monday, pointing to a close race between the right-wing lawmaker and the leftist incumbent.

The eldest son of former ‌President ​Jair Bolsonaro unexpectedly led ⁠the first-round vote earlier ⁠this month, finishing nearly two points ahead of Lula, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term.

NEXUS/BTG PACTUAL POLL

• Flavio Bolsonaro ​would receive 46.5% of the vote in the runoff, compared with 45.9% ⁠for Lula, a Nexus ⁠poll commissioned by BTG Pactual ​showed

• An October 13 survey had Bolsonaro at ​47.9% and Lula at 45.1%

• In ‌valid votes, which exclude blank votes and undecided voters, Bolsonaro leads Lula 50.3% to 49.7%

• Nexus surveyed 2,002 people from ⁠October 16-18; margin of error 2 percentage points

ATLASINTEL/BLOOMBERG POLL

• According to an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll, Bolsonaro would ⁠receive 49.8% ‌of the vote, against 47.6% ⁠for Lula

• An October 9 ​poll ‌had Bolsonaro at 51.1% and ​Lula at ⁠45.7%

• In valid votes, Bolsonaro leads Lula 51.1% to 48.9%

• AtlasIntel surveyed 4,998 people from October 13-18; margin of error 1 percentage point

(Reporting by Gabriel Araujo; Editing by ​Isabel Teles)