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Japan core inflation likely exceeded BOJ target for first time since December

By Thomson Reuters Oct 15, 2026 | 10:13 PM

TOKYO, Oct 16 (Reuters) – Japan’s core consumer inflation in September likely exceeded the central bank’s 2% target as higher energy prices driven ​by the Middle East conflict fed through ‌to households, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

• The nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which includes energy items but excludes fresh food prices, is expected to have risen ‌2.1% ​in September from a year ⁠earlier, according to a ⁠poll of 15 economists

• That would mark an acceleration from 1.7% in August and put core inflation above the Bank of Japan’s 2% ​target for the first time since December

• “Amid the emerging deterioration of the situation in Iran, ⁠growth is expected to accelerate ⁠for food items excluding rice as ​well as daily necessities,” said Ryosuke Katagi, a market ​economist at Mizuho Securities

• Separate data released on ‌Tuesday showed Japan’s wholesale inflation rose 6.8% year-on-year in September, slowing from the previous month but underscoring persistent price pressures that continue to fuel ⁠market expectations of a near-term BOJ rate hike

• The BOJ may signal this month that underlying inflation has ⁠roughly hit its ‌2% target, highlighting its readiness to ⁠raise interest rates again in the ​coming ‌months. But many in the central ​bank are ⁠wary of hiking again at its October 29-30 policy meeting

• The internal affairs ministry will release CPI data at 8:30 a.m. on Friday, October 23 (2330 GMT on October 22)

(Reporting by Kaori Kaneko; Editing by ​Sherry Jacob-Phillips)