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Lula leads Bolsonaro by 3 points in Brazil runoff scenario, Datafolha poll shows

By Thomson Reuters Oct 1, 2026 | 5:29 PM

SAO PAULO, Oct 1 (Reuters) – Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, ​his main challenger, in ‌a potential runoff ahead of this month’s election, a Datafolha poll showed on Thursday.

In a simulated runoff, Lula would receive ‌48% ​of the vote ⁠compared with 45% ⁠for Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. A previous Datafolha poll had Lula leading ​Bolsonaro by 47% to 45%.

• The result still represents a ⁠technical tie as ⁠the poll’s margin of error ​is 2 percentage points

• In a ​first-round scenario, Lula leads with 42% ‌of the vote, followed by Bolsonaro (38%), Augusto Cury (4%), Ronaldo Caiado (3%) and Renan Santos (3%)

• The previous Datafolha ⁠poll showed the leftist president with 40% against the right-wing senator’s 36%

• If no ⁠candidate ‌wins more than 50% ⁠of valid votes in the ​first ‌round on Sunday, the ​two frontrunners ⁠advance to a runoff set for October 25

• Datafolha surveyed 2,506 people between September 29 and October 1

(Reporting by Andre Romani; Editing by ​Fernando Cardoso)