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Brazil’s Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro still tied in presidential runoff scenario, Atlas poll shows

By Thomson Reuters Sep 29, 2026 | 5:58 AM

SAO PAULO, Sept 29 (Reuters) – Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro ​remain statistically tied in a ‌simulated runoff ahead of next month’s election, an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed on Tuesday, with the right-wing challenger now 0.1 percentage ‌point ​ahead of the ⁠incumbent — within the ⁠survey’s margin of error.

• If a runoff were held, Bolsonaro would receive 47.7% of voter support, compared ​with 47.6% for Lula, the poll said.

• In a September 23 ⁠poll, Lula led ⁠the eldest son of former President ​Jair Bolsonaro by 47.7% to 47.4%.

• ​In a first-round scenario, Lula would ‌receive 45.3% of voter support, followed by Bolsonaro (42.2%), Renan Santos (5.2%) and Augusto Cury (2%) according to Tuesday’s poll.

• ⁠The previous poll showed Lula at 45.8% and Bolsonaro at 43.4% in the first round.

• ⁠If ‌no candidate wins more ⁠than 50% of valid votes ​in ‌the October 4 election, the ​two frontrunners ⁠advance to a runoff on October 25.

• AtlasIntel surveyed 5,005 people between September 23 and 28.

(Reporting by Fernando Cardoso and Isabel Teles; Editing by ​Andrew Heavens)