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US holiday online sales to grow 6.7% as discounts attract shoppers, Adobe Analytics forecasts

By Thomson Reuters Sep 28, 2026 | 7:04 AM

Sept 28 (Reuters) – US online sales will likely grow 6.7% this holiday season, nearly the same pace as ​last year, as promotions attract ‌deal-seeking shoppers, Adobe Analytics forecast on Monday.

Higher household costs are turning shoppers more selective and value-seeking. Retailers, including Walmart, Kohl’s and American Eagle, ‌have ​raised concerns on consumers’ ⁠spending capacity ahead of ⁠the key shopping period that drives end-of-year sales.

• Online November-December sales to grow to $275.1 billion from $257.8 billion a year ​earlier, Adobe Analytics forecast

• Discounts are expected to peak at 30% on ⁠Cyber Monday, with the ⁠deepest markdowns for electronics and ​computers; Black Friday is likely to offer ​the best deals on TVs, toys, ‌apparel, appliances and furniture

• Cyber Monday likely to draw in the biggest spending at $15 billion — a 6.2% increase after last ⁠year’s 7.1%

• Black Friday online sales seen rising 9.2% to $12.9 billion, after last year’s 9.1% ⁠jump; Forecast ‌for Thanksgiving online sales rise ⁠is 8.5%, up from 5.3% ​a ‌year ago

• Adobe’s forecast is ​based on ⁠over 1 trillion visits to US retail sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories

(Reporting by Shania S Thomas and Neil J Kanatt in Bengaluru; Editing by ​Joyjeet Das)