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Brazil’s Lula widens first-round lead; runoff with Bolsonaro stays tight, BTG/Nexus poll shows

By Thomson Reuters Sep 28, 2026 | 6:07 AM

SAO PAULO, Sept 28 (Reuters) – Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro remain statistically ​tied in a simulated runoff ‌ahead of next month’s election, while the leftist incumbent widened his lead in first-round voting intentions, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed on Monday.

• ‌In ​a potential runoff, Lula ⁠would receive 46% ⁠of voter support, compared with 44% for the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, the poll said.

• Lula’s ​narrow runoff lead remains within the survey’s margin of error.

• A September ⁠21 survey had Lula ⁠leading Bolsonaro by 46% to ​45%.

• In a first-round scenario, Lula would ​lead with 42% of the votes, followed ‌by Bolsonaro (37%), Augusto Cury (5%), Ronaldo Caiado (5%) and Renan Santos (4%).

• The previous first-round survey had Lula at 40% and Bolsonaro at 37%.

• ⁠If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, ⁠the ‌two frontrunners will advance to a ⁠runoff on October 25.

• Nexus ​surveyed ‌2,000 people from September 25 ​to 27. ⁠The poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

(Reporting by Rodrigo Viga Gaier in Rio de Janeiro, Michael Susin in Barcelona and Isabel Teles in ​Sao Paulo)