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Brazil’s Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro remain tied in runoff scenario, Atlas poll shows

By Thomson Reuters Sep 23, 2026 | 5:36 AM

SAO PAULO, Sept 23 (Reuters) – Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro remain ​statistically tied in a simulated ‌runoff ahead of next month’s election, an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed on Wednesday, with the leftist incumbent now holding a narrow lead ‌within ​the survey’s margin ⁠of error.

• In a ⁠runoff, Lula would receive 47.7% of voter support, compared with 47.4% for the right-wing lawmaker, the poll ​said.

• In a September 17 poll, the eldest son of former ⁠President Jair Bolsonaro led ⁠Lula 47.2% to 46.8%.

• In ​a first-round scenario, Lula would receive ​45.8% of voter support, followed by Bolsonaro (43.4%), ‌Renan Santos (4.5%), Augusto Cury (2.1%) and Ronaldo Caiado (1.3%).

• The previous poll showed Lula at 44.1% and Bolsonaro at ⁠41.7% in the first round.

• If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes ⁠in ‌the October 4 election, the ⁠two frontrunners advance to a ​runoff ‌on October 25.

• AtlasIntel ​surveyed 5,015 ⁠people between September 17 and 22. The poll has a margin of error of 1 percentage point.

(Reporting by Gabriel Araujo and Fernando Cardoso; Editing by ​Isabel Teles)