Sept 18 (Reuters) – A historic super El Niño weather pattern, expected to peak between November 2026 and January 2027, threatens to rapidly deteriorate food security across Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador as conflict-disrupted shipping drives up food, fuel and fertilizer costs, according to the International Rescue Committee (IRC) aid organization.
• The IRC warned that “poor rains” could foster droughts and push 700,000 people in El Salvador into immediate need of emergency response.
• In Panama, JP Morgan sees El Niño forcing further Panama Canal vessel restrictions during the fourth quarter of the year, with the Canal Authority projecting a 5% transit decline in 2027.
• In Somalia, IRC modelling shows up to 2.6 million people could be at immediate risk of catastrophic flooding if El Niño combines with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, while current forecasts also indicate widespread drought across Southern Africa early next year.
• The El Niño weather pattern is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific caused by weakening trade winds. It occurs every two to seven years and tends to last up to 12 months, and can impact rainfall and temperature patterns in every region.
• El Niño-driven drought has devastated corn and bean crops across Central America’s Dry Corridor, pushing tens of thousands of rural households deeper into food and water insecurity, Oxfam has said.
• El Niño concerns added to weather-driven supply fears in global food markets, contributing to a rise in prices for staples including sugar and vegetable oils, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization has said.
(Reporting by Raúl Cortés, Editing by Iñigo Alexander)
