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Lula would beat Bolsonaro in a Brazilian runoff, CNT/MDA poll suggests

By Thomson Reuters Sep 15, 2026 | 7:05 AM

SAO PAULO, Sept 15 (Reuters) – Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva would beat right-wing Senator ​Flavio Bolsonaro if they ‌were in a second-round runoff in next month’s election, according to a CNT/MDA poll released on Tuesday.

• If there was ‌a ​runoff, Lula would receive ⁠47.3% of voter ⁠support, compared with 40% for the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, the poll said.

• In ​an August 11 poll, Lula led Senator Bolsonaro by 48% ⁠to 39.1%.

• In ⁠a first-round scenario, Lula would ​receive 40.5% of voter support, followed ​by Bolsonaro (30.4%), Augusto Cury (6%), Ronaldo Caiado (3%) ‌and Renan Santos (2.7%), according to the poll.

• The previous first-round survey showed Lula at 42.4% and Bolsonaro ⁠at 28.7%.

• If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in ⁠the October ‌4 first round, the ⁠two frontrunners advance to ​a ‌runoff on October 25.

• CNT ​surveyed 2,002 ⁠people from September 9 to 13 with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.

(Reporting by Eduardo Simoes and Gabriel Araujo; Editing by ​Andrew Heavens)