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Lula leads Flavio Bolsonaro in potential Brazil runoff, poll shows

By Thomson Reuters Jul 29, 2026 | 5:09 AM

SAO PAULO, July 29 (Reuters) – Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads a ​potential second-round vote in ‌the October presidential election against opposition Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed on Wednesday.

Lula would ‌receive ​49.2% of votes ⁠in a runoff, ⁠compared with 42.9% for Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, the poll ​showed. In June, Lula had 48.8% of votes vs ⁠Bolsonaro’s 42.3%.

• Undecided ⁠voters and those intending ​to cast blank or spoiled ​ballots fell to 7.9% from ‌8.9% in June.

• In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 44.9% of the vote, ⁠followed by Senator Bolsonaro at 35.8%, Renan Santos at 7.8%, Ronaldo Caiado ⁠at ‌3.1%, and Romeu Zema ⁠at 2.8%.

• The poll ​surveyed ‌5,021 people between July ​22 and ⁠27; it has a margin of error of one percentage point in either direction.

(Reporting by Andre Romani, Editing by ​Natalia Siniawski)