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Brazil’s Lula holds lead over Bolsonaro in BTG/Nexus election poll

By Thomson Reuters Jul 27, 2026 | 6:18 AM

July 27 (Reuters) – Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flavio ​Bolsonaro in a simulated ‌second-round runoff for October’s presidential election, a Nexus poll commissioned by lender BTG Pactual showed on ‌Monday.

• ​Leftist Lula would ⁠defeat the son ⁠of former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro in a potential runoff by 47% to ​43%, according to the survey.

• A July 13 poll ⁠had Lula ⁠ahead by 47% to ​44%.

• In a first-round scenario, ​Lula would lead with 42% of ‌the votes, followed by Bolsonaro (33%), Ronaldo Caiado (6%), Renan Santos (5%), and Romeu Zema (3%).

• In ⁠Brazil, if no candidate gets more than 50% of valid votes in ⁠the ‌first round, the ⁠two frontrunners advance to ​a ‌runoff.

• Nexus surveyed 2,004 ​people ⁠July 24-26; margin of error 2 percentage points.

(Reporting by Michael Susin in Barcelona; Writing by Gabriel Araujo; Editing by ​Alex Richardson)