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Fed seen less likely to raise rates as job growth slows

By Thomson Reuters Jul 2, 2026 | 8:07 AM

July 2 (Reuters) – Federal Reserve policymakers have less reason to deliver an interest-rate hike later this month, traders bet ​on Thursday, after a government report ‌showed the U.S. economy added far fewer jobs than expected in the last two months.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 jobs in June, the Labor Department’s ‌Bureau ​of Labor Statistics said ⁠in its closely watched ⁠employment report on Thursday.

That was about half what economists had anticipated. May job gains were revised down to 129,000, from ​the 172,000 initially reported.

“The slowdown in payroll growth challenges the narrative of renewed labour ⁠market strength that has ⁠been building in recent months ​but, importantly, reinforces the view that the Federal ​Reserve is under little pressure to tighten ‌policy,” wrote Principal Asset Management chief global strategist Seema Shah.

Traders  of short-term interest-rate futures now see less than a 20% chance ⁠of a rate hike in July, though they continue to see an increase in the policy ⁠rate in ‌September as likely.

Fed funds futures contracts ⁠reflect about a 60% chance ​of ‌a hike versus a continued hold ​in ⁠the current range of 3.50%-3.75%, versus about a 75% chance of a September rate hike seen before the jobs report.

(Reporting by Ann Saphir , Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Louise Heavens and ​Chizu Nomiyama )