SAO PAULO, May 5 (Reuters) – Brazil’s beef exports could drop 10% in 2026 from the year before due to China’s 55% tariff on beef imports that exceed quota levels, lobby group ABIEC president Roberto Perosa said on Tuesday.
Speaking to journalists, Perosa also said that the country’s beef production aimed at China is expected to halt around June, noting domestic consumption would need to grow to cover volumes that will no longer be shipped to the Asian country.
China, which is Brazil’s largest trading partner and top destination for Brazilian beef, imposed the tariff this year in a move to protect its domestic cattle industry.
The annual quota level for Brazilian beef imports – 1.1 million metric tons – is lower than the 1.7 million tons shipped to China last year, nearly half of the country’s total beef exports, data from ABIEC showed.
This year’s quota is already being filled, as companies rushed to ship beef to China without the prohibitive tax. The volume also includes beef shipped at the end of 2025 which entered China in early 2026.
“There is no market that can replace China,” Perosa said, adding he remains hopeful about a potential authorization of exports to Japan, another destination that could help soften the decline in shipments to China.
ABIEC had a more optimistic outlook earlier in the year, projecting relative stability in exports, based on potential market openings and the redirection of sales to other destinations.
The group represents major Brazilian meatpackers such as JBS, MBRF and Minerva.
(Reporting by Roberto Samora; Writing by Fernando Cardoso, Editing by Franklin Paul and Chizu Nomiyama )
