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European corporate outlook improves, but earnings forecast to fall

By Thomson Reuters Feb 12, 2026 | 11:39 AM

By Javi West Larrañaga

Feb 12 (Reuters) – The outlook for European corporate health has improved, the latest LSEG I/B/E/S forecasts showed on Thursday, ​as European blue-chip indices hit highs on ‌the back of a better-than-anticipated earnings season so far.

European companies are expected to report a 1.1% drop in 2025 fourth-quarter earnings, on average, according to LSEG data, a substantial ‌improvement ​from the 3.1% decrease analysts expected ⁠a week ago.

That ⁠would be still be the worst earnings performance in the ‍past seven quarters, based on the LSEG data.

OUTLOOK REBOUNDS

Market forecasts for fourth-quarter earnings sharply deteriorated ​after U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans for a wide array of tariffs on trading partners ⁠in February last year.

Expectations for ⁠STOXX 600 company earnings worsened from ​around 11% growth expected before the announcement to a ​contraction of as much as 4.2% estimated in ‌January.

Despite that, forecasts have slightly rebounded in past weeks, as 60% of companies have posted better-than-expected results so far this season. In a typical quarter, ⁠54% beat analyst estimates, according to LSEG data.

The outlook for revenue, however, deteriorated, and revenues of STOXX 600 companies ⁠are now ‌expected to be 3.4% lower than ⁠in the same period last year, compared ​to ‌a forecast of a 3.2% decrease ​last week.

Better-than-expected ⁠results of luxury group Hermes and Ray-Ban maker EssilorLuxottica coupled with positive guidance for 2026 from the world’s largest brewer Anheuser-Busch Inbev and Siemens were helping sentiment in Europe.

(Reporting by Javi West Larrañaga; Editing ​by Matt Scuffham)