By Oliver Griffin
SAO PAULO, Jan 23 (Reuters) – Arabica coffee growers in Brazil expect this year’s harvest to match or slightly exceed 2025’s crop, while canephora growers in Espirito Santo state forecast yields will fall, farmers told Reuters.
According to forecasts from Brazil’s national crop agency Conab in December, arabica coffee production in 2025 was seen declining by 9.7% to 35.8 million 60-kilogram bags, while canephora output, including robusta and conilon varieties, rose 42% to 20.8 million bags.
Arabica farmers in the Cerrado Mineiro region could see a better performance in this year’s crop as long as weather conditions remain favorable, Simao Pedro de Lima, president and executive director of cooperative Expocacer, said in an interview.
“In the 2025 harvest, the average productivity was around 26 sacks per hectare,” Lima said. “In the 2026 harvest, the average productivity could be around 32 sacks at the high end; around 28 sacks at the low end, and around 30 in the midrange.”
He cautioned that there were many months and variables to consider before any concrete estimates could be given.
Arabica plants are vibrant and beautiful because of recent rains, coffee agronomist Jonas Ferraresso said in an interview, adding that rains in January have not been uniform.
“Some producers report that the sprouting of pruned coffee plants is not very good, probably related to the uneven distribution of rainfall throughout the month,” Ferraresso said.
Based on his observations, Ferraresso expects production this year in line with last year’s output, or slightly greater.
CONILON OFF YEAR
Conilon coffee output in 2026 will be lower than last year, said Luiz Carlos Bastianello, president of Cooabriel, Brazil’s biggest canephora coffee cooperative.
“The productive potential of crops that produced in 2025 is lower in this cycle, due to physiological issues in the plants,” he said in a written response, adding that conilon coffee plants, like arabica coffee, follow biennial patterns and experience off years.
While new crops will raise production numbers, it should not be enough to offset the plants’ off year, Bastianello said, adding that it was still too early to provide an estimate for potential output this year.
(Reporting by Oliver GriffinEditing by Bill Berkrot)
