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Brazil economists raise inflation, rate forecasts after Lula reelection

By Thomson Reuters Nov 3, 2026 | 6:21 AM

SAO PAULO, Nov 3 (Reuters) – Private-sector economists raised their forecasts for Brazil’s inflation and interest rates in the first ​weekly central bank poll since left-wing ‌President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s reelection on October 25, the survey showed on Tuesday.

The forecast for inflation at the end of 2027 rose to ‌4.76% ​from 4.34%, while expectations for ⁠the central bank’s ⁠benchmark interest rate increased to 13.50% from 13.25% for end-2026 and to 12.50% from 11.75% for end-2027.

• GDP growth forecasts for ​2026 and 2027 fell to 1.76% and 1.2%, respectively, from 1.8% and 1.31% ⁠in the previous survey

• ⁠The Brazilian real was forecast at ​5.34 per US dollar at the end of ​2026 and 5.40 at the end ‌of 2027, compared with 5.05 and 5.15 per dollar in the previous survey, respectively

• Lula’s victory over right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, whom ⁠investors had viewed as the more market-friendly candidate, triggered a sharp selloff in Brazilian assets last ⁠week

• Brazil’s ‌central bank has an inflation ⁠target of 3%, plus or minus ​1.5 ‌percentage points

• The bank’s board ​is set ⁠to announce its next interest rate decision on Wednesday, after five straight 25-basis-point cuts that brought the Selic rate to 13.75%

(Reporting by Camila Moreira; Writing by Gabriel Araujo; Editing by ​Louise Heavens)