By Nathan Layne and Jason Lange
Oct 8 (Reuters) – Voters who backed Democratic former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 are far more enthusiastic about casting ballots this November than those who supported President Donald Trump, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found, in a potential warning sign for Republicans heading into the midterm elections.
The six-day poll, completed Monday, also found that men were more enthusiastic about voting and more certain to cast ballots than women, and that male voters showed signs of shifting toward Democrats. That could signal erosion in Republican support among a demographic that was a pillar of Trump’s 2024 victory.
Some 48% of 2024 Harris voters said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting in the November 3 midterm elections, when control of both chambers of Congress is at stake. By comparison, just 30% of Trump voters said the same in the poll.
The findings add to evidence of an enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats and suggest potential cracks in the coalition that propelled Trump in 2024, when he won the popular vote. That coalition was fueled by strong support from men and gains among Hispanic voters and other demographic groups that shifted to the right in the 2024 election.
The poll also adds to a string of encouraging signs for Democrats, who are widely favored to win control of the House of Representatives and remain competitive in the fight for the Senate as Trump’s approval ratings have slipped amid voter concerns about the cost of living and the war with Iran.
Republican strategist Charlie Gerow said the poll’s findings raise the stakes for his party’s turnout efforts, though he expects the enthusiasm gap to narrow as concerns about what he described as far-left Democrats gaining power motivate Republican voters.
“The enthusiasm has to be ginned up among Republicans because turnout is what’s going to determine the outcome of these midterm elections,” Gerow said.
While Trump voters overwhelmingly plan to vote Republican and Harris voters are similarly inclined to vote Democratic, the president’s 2024 supporters are less decided, with 13% saying they aren’t sure who to vote for in congressional elections, compared to 7% of Harris supporters who say the same.
BROAD DECLINE IN SUPPORT
The poll, which was conducted nationwide and surveyed 4,506 adults online, showed that just 32% of Americans approved of Trump’s presidency, holding at a record low first marked in a September Reuters/Ipsos survey. The survey has a 2 percentage point margin of error.
Since taking office in January 2025, support for Trump has fallen across every major demographic group, including double-digit drops among Hispanics, men, rural and suburban voters, people without college degrees and evangelical Christians.
One notable shift has come among men, a group Trump won in all three of his presidential campaigns, including by a 12-point margin in 2024, according to a Pew Research analysis.
When asked how they would vote in a congressional race if the elections were today, men in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll picked Democrats over Republicans, 43% to 39%. The four-point Democratic advantage was the widest of Trump’s second term. Men consistently favored Republicans in 2025 but since August have mostly favored Democrats.
The warning signs for Republicans reflect growing voter concerns about the high cost of living amid a surge in gasoline and diesel prices following the war with Iran. Trump launched the Iran attacks in February, despite pledging during his campaign not to start new conflicts and to lower costs for consumers.
Cost of living is the top issue on Americans’ minds as they decide how they will vote next month, the Reuters/Ipsos poll found. Voters cite democratic values as the second biggest issue, followed by immigration.
Republicans continue to hold an edge among older voters, a crucial bloc in midterm elections, when seniors have historically accounted for an outsized share of the electorate. Voters 50 and older still favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party by 2 percentage points, 44% to 42%, though that was down from an 8-point Republican advantage in December.
Still, the enthusiasm gap looms large for Republicans.
Among all the voters in the poll who said they were enthusiastic, 62% said they were pumped about expressing opposition to Trump, compared to 36% who said they were eager to support the president.
Linda Rivera, a 46-year-old Trump voter in Pennsylvania, said that while she would probably vote Republican if she casts a ballot, she is frustrated with both parties and feels “neither enthusiastic or unenthusiastic” about voting next month.
Rivera, a respondent in the poll, said concerns about widespread voting fraud – which have been repeatedly fanned by Trump and his Republican allies without evidence – have added to her doubts about whether she will vote.
“I have lost faith in the voting process,” she told Reuters. “I have lost faith in both parties. Not just one.”
(reporting by Nathan Layne in Wilton, Connecticut and Jason Lange in Washington; editing by Scott Malone and Deepa Babington)
