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BAT predicts fast growth in smoking alternatives for the next decade

By Thomson Reuters Sep 29, 2026 | 4:00 AM

By Emma Rumney

LONDON, Sept 29 (Reuters) – British American Tobacco said on Tuesday it expects annual revenue from selling smoking alternatives to grow by a mid-teens percentage until 2030, ​driven by nicotine pouches.

• The world’s second-largest tobacco maker ‌by market value hosted an investor day on Tuesday, where it outlined its strategy for growth until the end of the decade

• BAT said it expects nicotine industry revenues to grow 4% between 2025 and 2030, driven ‌by ​smoking alternatives. Nicotine pouch industry revenues ⁠will triple, and such products ⁠will be BAT’s main growth driver, it predicted

• It had already forecast mid-teens revenue growth from smoking alternatives for 2026 and now expects this to continue in the years ahead

• ​Its rising ambitions reflect growing optimism around the potential of nicotine pouches and fast growth in BAT’s pouch label Velo, after ⁠years of difficulties with its vape ⁠and heated tobacco brands

• It also expects the “contribution ​margin” from smoking alternatives — a measure of how profitable they are — ​to reach at least 30% by 2030, against 13.3% ‌in June 2026.

• BAT, which makes cigarette brands such as Dunhill and Lucky Strike, has been trying to grow revenues from other nicotine products amid long-term declines in smoking in some key ⁠markets

• In cigarettes, BAT will focus investments on 20 markets that deliver 80% of industry revenue, executives said. It expects global tobacco industry ⁠volumes to decline 2.5% ‌between 2025 and 2030

• BAT is also ⁠striving to integrate AI in areas such as ​product ‌development, marketing and manufacturing, they continued.

• The company ​also said ⁠it remains on track to deliver at the lower end of its guidance for revenue growth of between 3% and 5% and growth of 4% to 6% in adjusted profit from operations in its 2026 financial year

(Reporting by Emma Rumney. Editing by Jan Harvey ​and Mark Potter)