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Lula holds thin lead over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election, Datafolha poll shows

By Thomson Reuters Sep 24, 2026 | 4:58 PM

SAO PAULO, Sept 24 (Reuters) – Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has maintained a two-percentage-point lead ​over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, his main ‌challenger, in a potential runoff ahead of October’s election, a Datafolha poll showed on Thursday.

In a simulated runoff, Lula would receive ‌47% ​of the vote compared ⁠with 45% for Bolsonaro. ⁠A previous Datafolha poll last week had Lula leading Bolsonaro by 46% to 44%.

• The result also represents ​a technical tie as it falls within the poll’s margin of error ⁠of 2 percentage ⁠points.

• In a first-round scenario, ​Lula leads with 40% of the vote, ​followed by Bolsonaro (36%), Augusto Cury (5%), Ronaldo Caiado (4%) ‌and Renan Santos (3%).

• The previous poll showed the leftist president with 39% against the right-wing senator’s 36%.

• Senator ⁠Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year ⁠prison sentence ‌for attempting to overturn ⁠his 2022 election defeat to ​Lula.

• ‌If no candidate wins more ​than 50% ⁠of valid votes in the first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff.

• Datafolha surveyed 2,002 people between September 22-23.

(Reporting by Fernando Cardoso; Editing by ​Andre Romani)