By Mike Dolan
Sept 21 (Reuters) – After a turbulent week of central bank tightening, markets now turn to diplomacy – or at least top-level summits – as world leaders gather at the United Nations General Assembly in New York this week.
Topping the list of bilateral summits, though, is Thursday’s meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington.
Ahead of that, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng met on Sunday to prepare an agenda on trade relations, AI concerns and geopolitics.
But the noisy backdrop of two raging wars in the Middle East and Eastern Europe competed for the weekend headlines, as both Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh and Russia’s capital Moscow came under attack from Iran-backed Houthis and Ukrainian forces, respectively.
Oil prices did slip back on Monday, however, on hopes that Saudi Arabia would restore some flows through its East-West pipeline and amid some reports that oil and fuel shipments had picked up in September. Observable data was less optimistic. There were also some hopes that Chinese pressure on Iran to rein in regional attacks may have some impact.
Even though Brent crude remains above $100 per barrel and reports of some refined oil shortages were emerging at US retailers, stock markets welcomed the crude retreat and were higher in thin trading on Monday.
Japan has had little opportunity to react to Friday’s Bank of Japan interest rate rise, as Tokyo markets are closed for much of this week for holidays.
The yen pared some losses on Friday after a reported rate check, having weakened against the dollar following the hike. The currency was steady on Monday amid some trepidation about further official intervention during the market closures.
More broadly, rate markets were trying to calibrate ‘what next’ after the Federal Reserve’s rate rise last week. One more hike is now fully priced by year-end, and a move as soon as next month is about 50-50.
Minneapolis Fed boss Neal Kashkari said on Sunday that inflation concerns were not just about oil prices, with services price inflation just as worrying. Economists reckon the Fed is now trying to reset to absorb a faster-growing economy ahead that may prevent it hitting its inflation target.
Two-year Treasury yields have jumped as much as 36 basis points in the past two weeks.
Elsewhere, the Bank of England is also expected to raise rates by year-end, even after leaving policy unchanged last week. And European markets will eye another round of poor results for Germany’s ruling CDU party in two weekend state elections, although German Chancellor Friedrich Merz vowed to press on and the euro held steady first thing Monday.
Chart of the day
The French government must now pay a 104-basis-point premium on its 10-year bonds over Germany’s for the first time since 2012, as investors seek more compensation to hold its debt.
Investors, worried about long-term finances across developed economies, are growing concerned as France struggles to cut its high budget deficit ahead of a presidential election next year that could make that task even harder.
The government is trying to reduce the shortfall from 5.4% of output this year to 5% next year through €54 billion of tough spending cuts. Opposition parties are likely to challenge them in the coming months, potentially bringing the government down.
Today’s events to watch
• Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee speaks
• European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem also speak
• Japanese financial markets closed for holidays, returning Thursday
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