By Rodrigo Campos
NEW YORK, Sept 21 (Reuters) – Adoption of artificial intelligence could leave economic output in Latin America and the Caribbean 5.1% higher after a decade, while its effect on wages will depend on whether workers can move into expanding jobs, according to forthcoming research from the Inter-American Development Bank.
The IDB’s 2026 flagship report, due in November, estimates that regional economic output could be only 0.3% higher under limited AI adoption and small productivity gains. Wages could increase by 2.3% to 5.3% if workers move into jobs in expanding sectors, but fall by 13.5% to 20.9% if they do not.
The IDB is the largest development lender in Latin America and the Caribbean and has 48 member countries, including 26 borrowing members in the region.
IDB President Ilan Goldfajn also called for more financing, long-term purchase contracts and minimum prices to support critical-minerals supply chains. He said minerals produced in ways that respect labor conditions and the environment should be differentiated from supply produced without those safeguards and referred to a minimum price for buyers as a “buyers’ club.”
Goldfajn discussed AI and critical minerals with regional leaders, including the heads of state of Chile and Uruguay, as well as executives from Alphabet, Meta and Anthropic at a closed-door meeting on Monday. In an interview before that meeting, he gave no details on how the club or price mechanism would work, who might participate or whether the IDB would provide financial backing.
(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos in New York; Editing by David Gregorio)
