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Bolsonaro, Lula statistically tied in simulated Brazil runoff, Atlas/Bloomberg poll shows

By Thomson Reuters Sep 10, 2026 | 12:55 PM

SAO PAULO, Sept 10 (Reuters) – Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ​are statistically tied in a ‌simulated runoff ahead of next month’s election, an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed on Thursday, with the right-wing lawmaker now holding a ‌narrow ​numerical edge over the ⁠leftist incumbent.

• The ⁠eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro would receive 46.4% of the vote in a second-round runoff, ​compared with 46.2% for Lula, the poll showed.

• In late August, ⁠Lula led the senator ⁠47.1% to 42.6%.

• In ​a first-round scenario, Lula is seen leading ​with 43.0% of the vote, followed ‌by Bolsonaro (37.4%), Augusto Cury (6.6%) and Renan Santos (6.5%).

• The previous poll showed Lula at 43.4% and Bolsonaro at ⁠33.7% in the first round.

• If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid ⁠votes ‌in the October 4 first ⁠round, the two frontrunners ​advance ‌to a runoff on October ​25.

• AtlasIntel ⁠surveyed 5,000 people between September 4 and 9. The poll has a margin of error of 1 percentage point.

(Reporting by Andre Romani; Editing by ​Gabriel Araujo)