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US holiday retail sales growth set to accelerate, Deloitte says

By Thomson Reuters Sep 9, 2026 | 11:11 PM

Sept 10 (Reuters) – U.S. holiday retail sales are expected to grow by as much as 4.8% this year, Deloitte said on Thursday, as rising ​disposable incomes help support spending in the ‌crucial shopping season despite consumers’ continued focus on value.

Retailers have been navigating uneven consumer spending, with budget-conscious shoppers cutting back amid higher fuel and household costs while still selectively spending on ‌treats ​and seasonal splurges.

Here are some ⁠details:

• Sales during the ⁠November 2026 to January 2027 period are expected to rise between 4% and 4.8%, compared with 4.1% growth in the same period a year earlier, Deloitte ​said, citing data from agencies including the U.S. Commerce Department and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

• ⁠That translates to holiday sales of $1.70 ⁠trillion to $1.71 trillion, up from $1.63 trillion ​a year earlier, excluding gasoline stations and motor vehicle and ​parts dealers.

• The consultancy forecast disposable personal income, ‌its preferred bellwether for retail and e-commerce demand, to rise 4.5% to 5.2% during the holiday season.

• “Consumers continue to place importance on making the holidays special for ⁠their friends and families, while also making deliberate choices about how they spend,” said Natalie Martini, vice chair at ⁠Deloitte.

• Shoppers at ‌every income level are looking for ⁠deals, switching brands and shopping across retailers ​to ‌stretch their budgets, Martini added.

• E-commerce sales ​are expected ⁠to increase between 7.5% and 8.4%, reaching $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion during the holiday season. Online sales grew 7.5% to an estimated $294 billion in the same period a year earlier.

(Reporting by Neil J Kanatt in Bengaluru; Editing ​by Tasim Zahid)