SYDNEY, Aug 20 (Reuters) – Australian employment unexpectedly fell in July and the jobless rate hit its highest point since late 2021, data showed on Thursday, adding to signs of a cooling labour market and easing pressure for another interest rate hike.
The report sent the Australian dollar down 0.2% to $0.7111. Markets are pricing in little chance of a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia next month, but a move by the end of the year is still viewed as a coin toss, with much riding on inflation outcomes.
Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed net employment fell 15,800 in July from June when it jumped a revised 80,300. That was compared with a forecast for an increase of 15,000, though full-time jobs did rise by 16,300.
The jobless rate ticked up to 4.5%, above a forecast of 4.4% and running ahead of the RBA’s expectation that it will be at 4.5% by the end of the year. The monthly jobs data, however, have been volatile and past increases have been revised.
“Today’s data are a touch weaker than the bank had pencilled in and, together with yesterday’s softer wage growth, keep the pressure off the RBA to hike anytime soon,” said Ben Udy, lead economist for Oxford Economics Australia.
The details of the report were on the soft side. The participation rate eased to 66.9% from 67%, hours worked dropped 0.6% and the underemployment rate – a measure of slack in the labour market – held at a two-year high of 6.4%.
The RBA has judged that the labour market has eased a little, one reason that it held policy rates steady at 4.35% last week after three rate increases this year. On Wednesday, data showed that wages rose at a moderate pace for a fifth straight quarter.
Policymakers, however, warn that further tightening cannot be ruled out if inflation risks materialise, citing the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, the global artificial intelligence boom and poor productivity that has restrained the Australian economy’s potential growth rate.
“The bigger risks are coming from offshore,” said Krishna Bhimavarapu, an economist at State Street, adding that bond yields are rising, financial conditions are tightening and an El Nino event might affect Australia’s wheat harvest.
“The risk is that adverse weather becomes an unwelcome inflation shock at a time the economy is under transition, potentially slowing the disinflation process and adding another layer of uncertainty to growth,” he said.
(Reporting by Stella Qiu and Wayne Cole; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Thomas Derpinghaus)
