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Lula’s lead over Flavio Bolsonaro narrows in Brazilian election second-round, CNT/MDA poll shows

By Thomson Reuters Aug 11, 2026 | 9:25 AM

SAO PAULO, Aug 11 (Reuters) – Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s advantage over Senator ​Flavio Bolsonaro in a potential ‌runoff ahead of October’s general election narrowed, a CNT/MDA poll showed on Tuesday.

Lula would receive 48.0% of the votes ‌in ​a runoff, compared ⁠with 39.1% for ⁠Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, according to the poll.

In a June survey, Lula ​was seen with 49.3% of the votes, and Bolsonaro with ⁠36.8%.

In a first-round ⁠scenario, Lula would lead with ​42.4% of the votes, virtually unchanged ​from the June survey, followed by ‌Bolsonaro’s 28.7%, Ronaldo Caiado’s 4.0%, Romeu Zema’s 3.3% and Renan Santos’ 2.8%.

If no candidate wins more ⁠than 50% of valid votes in the first round, the two frontrunners advance ⁠to ‌a runoff.

CNT/MDA interviewed 2,002 ⁠people from August 5 to ​9 ‌in 140 Brazilian municipalities. ​The survey’s ⁠margin of error is 2.2 percentage points in either direction.

(Reporting by Isabel Teles; Writing by Fernando Cardoso; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and ​Keith Weir)