CAIRO, Aug 6 (Reuters) – Egypt’s annual headline inflation rate is expected to have accelerated in July to 15.6% from 14.3% in June, driven by an unfavourable base effect and stronger food and non-food price pressures, a Reuters poll found.
The median forecast of 13 analysts polled by Reuters between July 29 and August 6 was for annual urban consumer inflation to climb to 15.6% in July. Forecasts ranged from a low of 14.6% to a high of 16.3%.
“Stronger food inflation and an uptick in non-food inflation too, will have driven the headline rate higher in July to 16.1% year-on-year,” said James Swanston at Barclays.
The government statistics agency CAPMAS is due to release the July data on Monday, August 10.
Mohamed Abu Basha at EFG Holding said he expects a muted month-on-month reading of 0.5%, but an unfavourable base will lift the annual headline figure, adding that this is likely to continue in August before the base normalises and inflation starts a downward trend in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Egypt raised electricity prices for most consumption brackets by an average of 12% earlier this month, which is expected to feed into the August print, Daniel Richards of Emirates NBD said.
Egypt has been gradually removing fuel and electricity subsidies as part of commitments under its $8 billion support package with the International Monetary Fund, a process that has repeatedly fed through into consumer prices even as headline inflation has cooled.
Annual inflation had plunged from a record high of 38% in September 2023, helped by the IMF-backed reform programme agreed in March 2024, before renewed pressure from base effects and administered price hikes pushed the rate higher again in recent months.
Core inflation was forecast at a median of 14.9%, according to a smaller sample of three analysts, with forecasts ranging from 14.4% to 15.1%.
(Polling by Anant Chandak; Writing by Mohamed Ezz;Editing by Ros Russell)
