MEXICO CITY, Aug 4 (Reuters) – Mexico’s central bank is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 6.50% in its next decision on Thursday, according to most analysts in a Reuters poll, signaling a prolonged pause amid uncertainty over inflation and economic growth.
Of 35 analysts surveyed, 34 forecast the central bank, also known as Banxico, will hold the rate, maintaining the stance it adopted in June after a prolonged rate-cutting cycle.
• One analyst expects a 25-basis-point cut.
• The median forecast from 28 analysts sees the rate holding at 6.50% through the end of 2026, while 26 analysts project the same level through the end of 2027.
• Views diverge widely on the timing and scale of the next move amid uncertainty over whether slowing inflation will persist and the recent economic rebound can be sustained.
• Headline inflation eased in the first half of July to its lowest level in over five years, near the midpoint of the central bank’s 3% target range, though the core index edged higher.
• GDP grew 1.5% in the second quarter after contracting in the first, though analysts attributed part of the gain to temporary factors, including the World Cup.
• Analysts raised their 2026 growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.1%. The finance ministry has held its projection at between 1.8% and 2.8%.
(Reporting by Gabriel Burin in Buenos Aires; Writing by Noe Torres, Editing by Daina Beth Solomon)
