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Flavio Bolsonaro closes in on Lula in Nexus/BTG poll for Brazil election

By Thomson Reuters Aug 3, 2026 | 5:46 AM

SAO PAULO, Aug 3 (Reuters) – Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are ​running neck and neck ahead ‌of October’s presidential election, a Nexus/BTG Pactual poll showed on Monday, as the right-wing lawmaker narrowed the gap with the leftist ‌incumbent.

• ​In a simulated ⁠second-round runoff, Lula would ⁠receive 46% of voter support compared with 45% for Bolsonaro.

• A July 27 Nexus poll had Lula ​leading Bolsonaro 47%-43%.

• In a first-round scenario, Lula would lead with ⁠41% of the votes, ⁠followed by Bolsonaro (37%), Ronaldo Caiado (5%), ​Renan Santos (4%), and Romeu Zema (3%).

• The ​previous poll showed Lula at 42% and ‌Bolsonaro at 33% in the first round.

• If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes ⁠in the first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff.

• Lula, 80, was officially ⁠named ‌the Workers’ Party candidate for ⁠a fourth non-consecutive term on ​Sunday, ‌pledging to boost defense ​investment and ⁠safeguard Brazil’s rare earths.

• Nexus surveyed 2,002 people between July 31 and August 2; margin of error 2 percentage points.

(Reporting by Gabriel Araujo; Editing by ​Kirsten Donovan )