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Risk-averse investors push Brazil debt deeper into interest rate exposure

By Thomson Reuters Jul 29, 2026 | 2:31 PM

By Marcela Ayres

BRASILIA, July 29 (Reuters) – Brazil’s Treasury is increasing its reliance on floating-rate debt tied to the benchmark Selic interest rate as investors shun longer-dated securities amid global volatility and persistent fiscal ​concerns, official data showed on Wednesday.

The trend leaves Latin America’s largest ‌economy more exposed to high borrowing costs and marks a setback for the Treasury’s long-running effort to improve the composition of public debt.

The share of Selic-linked securities has already climbed close to the upper end of the Treasury’s target range for next year, despite ‌being ​only halfway through 2026.

No major economy relies as ⁠heavily on floating-rate debt as ⁠Brazil, a structure that helps ensure demand for government securities during periods of market stress but leaves public finances more vulnerable to swings in interest rates.

The Selic rate stands at 14.25%, down from a nearly 20-year ​high of 15% after the central bank began an easing cycle in March, but still among the highest real interest rates in the world.

Brazil’s ⁠federal public debt rose 2.61% in June ⁠from the previous month to 9.3 trillion reais ($1.8 trillion), driven ​by net issuance of 142.3 billion reais and 93.5 billion reais in interest ​accruals.

Selic-linked debt accounted for 49.32% of the total stock in June, ‌up from 48.99% in May and nearing the upper limit of the Treasury’s 2026 target range of 46% to 50%.

Helano Dias, the Treasury’s head of public debt operations, said at a press conference that the government is likely ⁠to raise its target range for Selic-linked debt issuance in a revision of its annual financing plan due in September.

The Treasury has stepped up issuance of floating-rate ⁠bonds, known as LFTs, ‌as investors seek protection from market turbulence fueled by ⁠geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and lingering concerns ​about Brazil’s ‌fiscal outlook.

Elevated premiums on inflation-linked bonds have also made ​it harder ⁠for the government to sell longer-term securities.

Excluding foreign-currency debt, which accounts for about 4% of the total, LFTs made up 71% of issuance in June, the Treasury said. The pattern continued in July, with the securities accounting for 67.8% of issuance through July 28.

($1 = 5.1276 reais)

(Reporting by Marcela Ayres; Editing by Mark ​Porter and Sanjeev Miglani)