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Brazil’s Lula gains ground on Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of presidential vote, poll shows

By Thomson Reuters Jul 15, 2026 | 5:15 AM

SAO PAULO, July 15 (Reuters) – Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has widened his lead over ​right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in ‌the run-up to October’s presidential election, a Quaest poll commissioned by brokerage Genial showed on Wednesday.

It is the first Quaest survey following ‌a ​series of political developments ⁠including a corruption ⁠investigation targeting a senior Lula ally and arguments about accountability over new U.S. tariff threats against Brazil.

• Leftist Lula ​is seen with 45% of voting intentions in a potential second-round ⁠runoff, compared with 37% ⁠for Senator Bolsonaro, currently the ​main opposition hopeful.

• A Quaest poll in ​June showed Lula leading Flavio Bolsonaro ‌by 44% to 38%.

• In a first-round scenario, Lula would take 40%, Bolsonaro 28%, Ronaldo Caiado 4%, Renan Santos ⁠3% and Romeu Zema 2%.

• In Brazil, if no candidate gets more than 50% of ⁠valid votes, ‌the two frontrunners go ⁠to a second-round vote.

• Quaest ​surveyed ‌2,004 people between July 10 ​and 13. ⁠The poll has a margin of error of two percentage points in either direction.

(Reporting by Michael Susin and Isabel Teles; Writing by Victoria Pacheco; Editing by ​Andrew Heavens)