By Ahmed Rasheed and Sarah El Safty
DUBAI, June 29 (Reuters) – An economic crisis caused by the Iran war and a fresh surge of investment by oil majors are driving Iraq’s aggressive push for a higher OPEC production quota, potentially placing it on a collision course with the producer bloc.
The pressure from Baghdad adds to the challenges confronting the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, still reeling from the conflict’s fallout and the shock departure of the United Arab Emirates after nearly 60 years as a member.
The war, which forced huge export cuts, has aggravated discord among the group’s core Gulf members.
Iraq — among OPEC’s five founding members and its second-biggest producer — took a major economic hit as the oil proceeds accounting for the bulk of state revenues dried up.
“Iraq’s demand for a larger OPEC quota is primarily a response to mounting economic pressures,” said an Iraqi energy adviser, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.
“Export disruptions and war-related losses have increased the need for higher production.”
With the fragile U.S.-Iran truce now promising to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq is in a rush to replenish its coffers and considering all available options if its OPEC quota is not significantly increased.
It has even weighed leaving the bloc, sources told Reuters last week, though Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi said in a statement on Friday it had not discussed such a move.
The conviction that it should be reaping more from its oil resources has been reinforced by a string of multi-billion-dollar deals signed since early 2025 with oil majors that for years shunned Iraq due to its instability.
BP has committed up to $25 billion to redevelop four giant fields in Kirkuk. TotalEnergies is executing a $10 billion project in Basra. ExxonMobil signed a deal to develop the massive Majnoon field. And Chevron has also mulled a return.
Yet, with those commitments and a possible loosening of quota restraints, some experts still question whether Iraq can overcome massive infrastructure requirements and lingering execution risks to realise its ambitions.
MORE BARRELS, MORE REVENUE NEEDED
Even among the Gulf’s oil-dependent economies, Iraq’s stands out.
Oil accounted for 88% of its government revenues last year, according to World Bank data, among the highest in OPEC. Saudi Arabia, by comparison, depended on oil for about 55% of its government revenue, finance ministry data showed.
The hit from the war has been aggravated by Iraq’s lack of an alternative to the Hormuz strait for large-scale oil exports. Iraq pumped 1.48 million barrels of oil per day in May, according to OPEC data, down from almost 4.2 million bpd in February before the waterway’s effective closure.
According to the International Energy Agency, Iraq has the capacity to produce 4.9 million bpd and could reach that level in 90 days. That’s over 500,000 bpd — worth around $36 million per day at current price levels — more than its July OPEC quota of 4.378 million bpd.
“From Baghdad’s perspective, the message is simple: we need more barrels and more revenue,” the Iraqi energy adviser said.
FUTURE AMBITIONS, PAST DISAPPOINTMENTS
Iraq’s longer-term plans to expand production capacity would put its output well beyond its current OPEC quota levels.
Three Iraqi oil officials said it is targeting production of 7 million bpd in the coming years.
BP, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil and Chevron have publicly framed their renewed interest in Iraq as long-cycle growth bets that provide them access to new resources. But the sector will need even more investment if it is to meet its new targets, experts told Reuters.
Prime Minister al-Zaidi, who took office last month, has signaled that rebuilding Iraq’s economy and attracting foreign investment will be central to his agenda. Already backed by U.S. President Donald Trump, he will visit Washington in mid-July and has stated U.S. companies interested in business in Iraq will receive top priority.
This is not the first time Baghdad has aimed high. Previous plans to lift capacity have faced delays and obstacles. And there are also skeptics this time around.
“Reaching 7 million bpd faces substantial headwinds and looks extremely optimistic,” said Mercedes McKay, a senior upstream analyst at Energy Aspects, noting that constraints around export infrastructure will continue to limit how quickly new capacity can be brought online.
A previous, more ambitious push to lift capacity to 12 million bpd was scaled back in 2012 after international companies negotiated lower output targets, citing high natural decline rates, low recovery factors and insufficient investment in infrastructure.
Attracting the levels of investment required to develop oil fields and fix the kinds of infrastructure bottlenecks that have kept previous capacity gains from translating into sustained higher output will not be easy.
And Iraq is still struggling to shake off the image that has made foreign companies wary in the past, said Mohammed Abbas, a former manager at the state-run Basra Oil Company and now an energy consultant.
“The sector continues to face … regulatory uncertainty, security challenges, political instability and delays in project execution,” he said.
(Reporting by Sarah El Safty, Ahmed Rasheed and Ahmed GhaddarEditing by Maha El Dahan, Alex Lawler and Joe Bavier)
