By Kylie Madry
June 26 (Reuters) – Australia has already filled its annual beef quota for China and Brazil is close behind, potentially pushing two of the world’s largest exporters out of the Chinese market for the rest of 2026, according to a Friday report from Argentina’s Rosario exchange.
• That has raised uncertainty over beef trade and prices in the second half of the year, particularly as other suppliers such as Argentina, Uruguay and New Zealand still have more room left under their quotas.
• The report said Australia and Brazil shipped aggressively early in the year, betting China might loosen the rules or expand quotas later on. Others moved more slowly, hoping tighter supply later in the year would lift prices.
• Reuters exclusively reported in May that both Australia and Brazil had repeatedly lobbied China in recent months to relax the quotas.
• So far, neither strategy has clearly worked. China’s beef imports in the first five months of 2026 were stronger than expected, and prices were also higher, despite the quota system introduced to slow import growth and protect domestic producers.
• The key question now is whether China will allow out-of-quota beef to enter bonded warehouses. If Beijing does not allow that, exporters with quota left to use could gain an advantage in the months ahead. If it does, Australia and Brazil could begin positioning product later this year for sale as soon as 2027 quotas open, which could weigh on prices.
(Reporting by Kylie Madry)
