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Mexico inflation likely slowed in April, paving way for possible rate cut

By Thomson Reuters May 4, 2026 | 2:59 PM

MEXICO CITY, May 4 (Reuters) – Mexican inflation is expected to have eased in April, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, ​giving Mexico’s central bank more room ‌to cut its key interest rate this week and likely end a prolonged cycle of monetary easing.

• The median estimate from 12 analysts projected annual headline ‌inflation ​falling to 4.50% in April, ⁠from 4.59% in March.

• ⁠A decline in headline inflation would break three consecutive months of upticks.

• On a monthly basis, headline consumer prices are estimated ​to have risen by 0.25% in April, according to the poll.

• The annual core ⁠inflation rate, considered a better ⁠measure of price trends because ​it excludes highly volatile items, is also estimated ​to have fallen to an estimated 4.27% from ‌4.45% last month.

• It would mark the third consecutive month of decline for the core rate.

• On a monthly basis, core prices ⁠were seen rising 0.31%.

• Official inflation data for April will be released on Thursday morning, hours before ⁠Mexico’s central ‌bank announces its monetary policy ⁠decision.

• The market expects the Bank ​of ‌Mexico to end a monetary easing ​cycle that ⁠started over two years ago with a final 25-basis-point cut to the benchmark rate at its meeting on Thursday.

(Reporting by Gabriel Burin in Buenos Aires; Writing by Noé Torres; Editing by ​Brendan O’Boyle)