April 9 (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs trimmed its second‑quarter 2026 forecasts for Brent and U.S. crude to $90 and $87 a barrel, respectively, late on Wednesday, after the U.S. and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire.
Previously, the bank forecast Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices to average $99 and $91 a barrel, respectively.
“Given the reduction in the risk premium at the front of the curve and already edging up oil flows through the SoH (Strait of Hormuz), we nudge down our Q2 forecast for Brent/WTI,” the bank said in a note.
Brent crude oil prices are down over 11% so far this week on the hope that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen after U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.
However, prices rose during the early Asia session on Thursday on concerns that supply from the key Middle East producing region may not fully resume amid doubts about the ceasefire holding and as the crucial strait remains restricted. [O/R]
Goldman’s third- and fourth‑quarter oil price forecasts were at $82 and $80 for Brent and $77 and $75 for WTI, respectively.
The bank said risks to its price forecasts remain skewed to the upside, reflecting the potential for longer‑lasting disruptions and more persistent crude production losses.
In a severe case where the ceasefire doesn’t hold and with persistent Middle East production losses of around 2 million barrels per day, Brent could average closer to $115 in the fourth quarter, the bank said.
(Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair)
