By Jamie McGeever
ORLANDO, Florida, April 2 (Reuters) – World markets reeled on Thursday, with stocks mostly lower and U.S. oil soaring 11% after President Donald Trump indicated there will be no let-up in the war on Iran, meaning the Strait of Hormuz won’t be opening up soon, as traders had hoped.
In my column today I look at the U.S. labor market ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. From the outside, it looks stable, with labor supply and demand roughly balanced. But job growth has ground to a halt and that isn’t good, especially in light of the economic pressures triggered by the Iran war.
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.
Today’s Key Market Moves
Today’s Talking Points
* Seeking a Strait answer
If there’s one thing driving financial market sentiment and pricing more than anything else, it is the ebb and flow of expectation around when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. Thursday’s trading was a microcosm of that.
Trump strongly indicated on Wednesday there is no imminent ceasefire, deal, or off-ramp. Stocks slumped, oil soared. Some of these moves were reversed on Thursday on news Iran and Oman are to monitor traffic in the Strait, fueling hopes of a reopening. Meanwhile, the war is about to enter its sixth week.
* Blue Owl blues
Turmoil in private credit markets deepened on Thursday after Blue Owl said it is limiting withdrawals from two funds after record redemption requests, renewing fears over valuations, lending standards, and potential systemic risks in the opaque sector.
This is the latest of many cases of investors wanting to get their money out of private credit funds, but having these withdrawals capped. Limiting redemptions only intensifies these concerns though, and is sure to draw even closer attention from regulators.
* The fragile ‘no hire’ U.S. jobs market
The March U.S. employment report is released on Friday, and is expected to show net 60,000 jobs added and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.4%. On the face of it, that doesn’t look too bad, but below the surface there’s cause for concern.
Job growth is stagnant, with the six-month average payrolls close to zero. The breakeven payrolls level is close to zero, with labor supply cratering too. This is not a healthy labor market, and the inflationary and economic pressures ignited by the Iran war could expose its frailties.
What could move markets tomorrow?
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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams)
