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BOJ releases updated estimate on Japan’s natural rate of interest

By Thomson Reuters Mar 27, 2026 | 2:13 AM

By Leika Kihara

TOKYO, March 27 (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan released on Friday an updated ​estimate on Japan’s natural ‌rate of interest, which showed it in a range of around -0.9% to +0.5%.

The range was largely unchanged from a previous ‌estimate ​showing Japan’s natural ⁠rate of interest ⁠in a range of -1.0% to +0.5%.

The natural rate of interest is defined as the level of the ​real interest rate that is neutral to economic activity and ⁠prices, and it ⁠is an important concept ​in the conduct of monetary policy.

“Although ​the range itself has not changed ‌significantly, a closer look reveals that many of the estimates have recently been moderately on ⁠the rise,” reflecting partly an increase in Japan’s potential growth rate, the BOJ said ⁠in ‌a staff paper.

Given uncertainty ⁠surrounding the estimates of ​the ‌natural rate, the BOJ ​would look ⁠comprehensively at various data to measure the degree of monetary accommodation, the paper said.

(Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Himani Sarkar and ​Muralikumar Anantharaman)