By Makiko Yamazaki
TOKYO, March 18 (Reuters) – Japan’s exports rose for a sixth straight month, data showed on Wednesday, pointing to resilient global demand, although surging oil prices driven by the Middle East conflict looms as a risk to the world’s fourth-largest economy.
Total exports by value rose 4.2% year-on-year in February, data showed, exceeding a median market forecast for a 1.6% increase.
The timing of China’s Lunar New Year has distorted trade data in recent months, as a later-than-usual holiday this year led to front-loading of shipments to the Asian powerhouse in January, inflating Japan’s overall exports by 16.8% in the month.
Exports to the United States dropped 8% in February from a year earlier, while those to China were down 10.9%, the data showed. Exports to the rest of Asia grew 2.8%.
Imports rose 10.2% last month from a year earlier, compared with market forecasts for an 11.5% increase.
As a result, Japan recorded a trade surplus of 57.3 billion yen ($360.65 million) in February, compared with the forecast of a deficit of 483.2 billion yen.
Japan’s economy has shown modest recovery momentum, with growth in the final three months of 2025 revised up to an annualised 1.3% on the back of robust business investment.
But analysts warn that rising oil costs are stoking stagflation risks, potentially taking a toll on an economy heavily reliant on energy imports.
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at a two-day policy meeting ending on Thursday, while signalling its resolve to maintain a tightening bias, as a weak yen and higher oil prices add to inflationary pressures.
($1 = 158.8800 yen)
(Reporting by Makiko Yamazaki; Editing by Sam Holmes & Shri Navaratnam)
