By David Lewis and MacDonald Dzirutwe
LONDON/LAGOS, March 17 (Reuters) – Nigeria’s president described attacks in the northeast’s most heavily defended city as “the final desperate” acts of militants trying to spread fear. Many experts say the opposite is true, that the blasts were a sign of strength not weakness.
An assault on Maiduguri by coordinated suicide bombers points to state intelligence failures and the capacity of Islamist militants to hit urban areas despite waves of government operations against them, they said.
It is still not clear which of Nigeria’s militant groups carried out the attack, underscoring the complexity of a sprawling 17-year insurgency that has killed tens of thousands of people and forced millions more from their homes.
‘WE THINK THIS IS THE START’
Given a spate of other attacks in recent weeks carried out by both Boko Haram militants and ISWAP, an Islamic State-allied faction, some analysts said that there could have been a degree of coordination between the often rival groups.
“We have to see this as the groups oozing confidence in their ability to wreck terror in that part of the country,” said Ikemesit Effiong, partner at SBM Intelligence, a Nigeria-based risk advisory company.
“We think this is the start of a spate of bombings, not just in Maiduguri but also less protected urban areas in the northeast.”
President Bola Tinubu said on Tuesday he had approved additional equipment and support for the military, which he promised would “completely defeat” the militants, repeating pledges made by previous administrations.
As violence has spread within Nigeria, including to the northwest, the U.S. military has recently carried out air strikes and deployed military advisers. It was not immediately clear whether U.S. troops would be involved in any response to the bombings.
WAITING THE MILITARY OUT
Nigeria has battled Islamist militants in the northeast since 2009, when Boko Haram first emerged in Maiduguri, capital of Borno State, seeking to create an Islamic state. A violent crackdown led to the death of the group’s founder in police custody and the militants were driven out of urban areas.
Since then, the group has splintered, spawning factions, one of which declared allegiance to Islamic State and has become the most powerful, administering swathes of northeastern Nigeria.
ACLED, a crisis-monitoring group, said Monday’s attack was the deadliest suicide bombing in Nigeria for seven years.
Over the years, the Nigerian military’s operations have not stopped Islamist groups from putting down roots, according to Vincent Foucher, senior research fellow with the National Centre for Scientific Research in Bordeaux.
“The jihadists control substantial rural areas, the military hold towns which are entrenched,” he said.
Even when the military targets ISWAP strongholds, like they did recently in the Alagarno forest, Foucher said gains are often temporary.
“They killed a few people, seized and destroyed some infrastructure, including an ISWAP prison. But the jihadists just move away and wait the military out,” he said.
Nigeria’s military said it had foiled four attacks in separate locations outside Maiduguri ahead of Monday’s bombings.
INTELLIGENCE FAILURES
Malik Samuel, senior researcher at Good Governance Africa, said militant groups had the ability to strike anywhere in Borno state but carrying out three simultaneous attacks in a city hosting the military headquarters raised many questions, such as whether bombs were smuggled into the city or assembled there.
“It speaks to the intelligence failure and it shows that both factions are still very, very capable,” he said.
Samuel and two other experts believe the attack itself was carried out by Boko Haram militants who have a history of suicide bombings, whereas ISWAP has tended to avoid them.
However, Effiong and two security sources did not rule out some degree of collaboration between them.
“Clearly, it means Maiduguri is not as safe as the authorities would want people to believe,” Samuel said. “Attacking Maiduguri is symbolic for these groups.”
‘IT IS WHACK-A-MOLE’
Jihadists have escalated attacks on the Nigerian military during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, killing dozens of troops, including senior officers, and seizing equipment.
On top of this, the attack in Maiduguri indicated that the militants were ‘”not going anywhere, anytime soon,” Samuel said.
The United States – which has had a long partnership with Nigeria’s military, providing training and selling weapons – said it carried out air strikes in the northwest on Christmas Day to stop the targeting of Christians in the region.
About 100 troops have since deployed to the country to support the military and the U.S. military is providing intelligence from aerial surveillance.
One security source said that this intelligence led to the destruction of four ISWAP gun trucks on March 11. But Effiong said it also exposed the government to accusations of being a Western stooge, potentially fuelling recruitment among jihadis.
Neither the State Department nor U.S. Africa Command responded to requests for comment for this story.
Foucher said the faction that had been hit by U.S. Tomahawk missiles in December was still operational, highlighting the limitations of U.S. military action.
“They can regenerate easily,” Foucher said. “There are so many different fires that are burning throughout Nigeria now. It is whack-a-mole.”
(Editing by Andrew Heavens)
