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UK firms’ wage growth expectations stick near 4-year low in February, BoE survey shows

By Thomson Reuters Mar 5, 2026 | 3:43 AM

LONDON, March 5 (Reuters) – British employers’ expectations for wage growth held at their joint-lowest in nearly four years in February, ​according to a survey published by ‌the Bank of England, which is looking out for further signs of a slowdown in pay pressure before it next cuts interest rates.

Expected year-ahead wage growth ‌remained ​at 3.6% on a ⁠three-month moving-average basis in ⁠February, the joint-lowest reading since the series started in 2022, the monthly Decision Maker Panel survey showed on Thursday.

Companies’ expectations for how ​much they would raise their own prices in the coming 12 months inched ⁠down, falling by 0.1 percentage ⁠points to 3.4% in the ​three months to February.

Companies also said they expected ​to expand staffing levels by 0.1% over ‌the coming year.

The central bank is closely monitoring wage growth as it tries to gauge how much inflation pressure remains in the ⁠economy and is expected to keep interest rates at 3.75% this month after holding them in February.

Investors ⁠trimmed their ‌bets on interest rate cuts by ⁠the Bank of England this week ​and ‌are only pricing in one ​quarter-point cut ⁠this year as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran continued to stoke fears about inflation.

The BoE survey was conducted before the most recent Middle East conflict started.

(Reporting by Suban Abdulla; editing by ​David Milliken)