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Fed seen on longer rate-cut pause after jobs data

By Thomson Reuters Jan 9, 2026 | 8:16 AM

Jan 9 (Reuters) – A drop in the U.S. unemployment rate may ease concerns at the Federal Reserve about labor market ‍weakness and build the case for a longer hold on the policy rate, with traders betting the central bank will wait until June to resume reductions.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.4% ‌last month from a revised ‌4.5% in November, the U.S. Labor Department reported Friday, even as employers added a fewer-than-expected 50,000 jobs in the month.

The improvement in the jobless rate, ​even with continued loss of momentum in monthly job gains, gives the central ‍bank more breathing room to ​leave short-term borrowing costs where ​they are as it waits for better data ‍on inflation.

U.S. central bankers last year reduced the policy rate by three quarters of a percentage point in a bid to keep the job market from softening, even as ‍hawkish U.S. central bankers argued that doing so could slow or even imperil progress on bringing ‍down above-target ‍inflation.

Short-term interest rate futures dropped after ​the jobs report.

Traders now see ​just ⁠a 45% chance of a rate ‌cut by April, versus about 50-50 odds before the report, with a June resumption to rate cuts seen as the far more likely timing.

(Reporting by Ann Saphir; editing by Philippa Fletcher and ⁠Chizu Nomiyama )